XLU, XLY updates 01/31

XLU: Off its price low made in 20023 to its price high made in 2007 there’s a picture perfect impulse up. Then there’s a extremely expanded, irregular-flat Primary II wave into the price low made in 2009. After that, even though price is making new ATHs, the impulse structure off that low is a bit hard to identify. So far I can best assess 12 waves underway and to have an impulse we need 5, 9, 13, 17, etc waves up. Thus if price can muster another wave up that be great -especially to the 138.20% extension, and I would the classify the whole advance as III/C. A drop below the “10” wave would be bearish.

XLU monthly


XLY: Now this is an impulse. Since there are so many waves to count, I could have missed one, which would shift the entire wave degree off the February 2016 low down 1 degree. That would namely mean that low was not (yellow) major-4 but (red) intermediate-iv. For now I leave the labeling as is, but please be cognizant of this fact. The count shown means intermediate-iii of major-5 of Primary-I is soon completing. Probably a few more smaller squiggles up. Then iv and v will finalize the entire advance as a picture perfect impulse up off the price low made in 2009. In the case of the “I may have missed 1 wave degree” then the coming top will be minor-3 of intermediate-v of major-3. Minor-4, 5 of intermediate-v of major-3, and major-4, 5 are then still left instead. We’ll take it as it comes, as for now a larger retrace is regardless around the corner. Since the waves are so extended it’s hard to predict from which level and to what level, but support is now clearly just above $92.

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