XLF, XLU updates 05/22

XLF: Counts still best as (green) minor-4 in and minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3 or primary-V of Cycle 3/C being underway. That means new ATHs: expecting $32-$33.

XLF

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XLU: This one is not as clear cut as XLF. There’s namely a clear impulse down during the September 2017, which could be counted as (yellow) A. Then there’s a dubious impulse up to the November 2017 high. From that high there’s then another clear and nicelyt subdividing impulse down to the February 2016 low. Thus we could have a possible irregular (expanded) flat correction (yellow A, B, C) and now wave-3 up is getting started. Or there was indeed a larger top and wave-C down is now underway, with wave A in February and wave-B in April (white A, B) and now wave-C is underway as also the move down from that April-2018 high to the recent low counts best as an impulse down.

XLU daily

So here we are again at the “may be this, maybe that” dilemma of Elliot-wave. How to then know which count is which? Simple: a break above the April-high means wave-13 (see chart below) is underway. But a bounce to about $50.40-50.80 and then a drop below the recent ~$48.60 low means the bigger C-wave down is underway. I then expect XLU to reach ~$42 ultimately. Thus being long here is an uncertain position IMHO.

XLU monthly