XLE

Last updated July 12, 2019

Half a year later since the last update… and honestly not much has changed regarding my preferred view: back then I viewed the December 2018 low as (yellow) major-a and that a major-b wave to around $67.50 was underway. Price topped just above $68 and dropped below $58 to now rally back to $64.50ish. BINGO! Thus, if a forecast was correct I can only keep it as my preferred view, obviously, and I can only add an alternate view.

So, that said, I view the current rally as (red) intermediate-b of major-c of Cycle 2. A drop below the June low will confirm this view. The alternate view is that major-b is becoming more complex, which is nothing too surprising as b-waves can be a total nightmare…. It would be a brief drop to around $62 (good support), and then a rally to mid- to high $70s.

So, for now, the upside appears limited and a better shot at going long may be at $62, with a cut off at $59 (less than 5% lower).