XLE, XLV updates 11/28

XLE: Failed to overtake horizontal resistance and we can most likely label the recent high as Primary B, with primary C to ideally ~$28 underway. A break below $62.50 would certainly add weight to the evidence and a break below $50 will of course fully confirm this thesis. Thus for now, price is still a bit in no-man’s-land, but the reaction down off resistance is not encouraging for Bulls. Only a break above the recent high will have me look higher, until then the weight of the evidence tells us to look lower.


XLV: Price reached the ideal minor 5=1 extension and declined. This suggests (yellow) major-3 is completed and major-4 is underway. Of course minor-5 can still subdivide, and target ~$97 +/- 1, but for now I find it less likely. Major-4 should bottom in the white target zone: $77.5-$75. Thus downside risk is IMHO now larger than upside reward.