XLE, XLF, XOP updates 10/2

XLE: Still looks best as trying to reach the Primary B-wave blue target zone, but has to break above this pesky horizontal resistance level first to do so. Upside potential: $5-$15. Downside risk $30. Please take this into account.


XLF: Still looks best with needing one more wave higher to complete C3/C, but if we look at the daily chart we see price is below its 200d SMA, and that is not constructive.


We can also see that price is right at support. A possible Elliott wave count has this as being wave-ii of (yellow) 5 of V, but we must see blast off soon or else if price falls below horizontal support $26.50 is next and the possible impulse-pattern setup is gone.

XLF daily

XOP: very choppy longer term, which all could be seen as cycle waves. Horizontal support and resistance are rather obvious and price is now at resistance. A sustained break higher targets $68, which fits with the c=1.618 to c=1.764x a Fib-extensions. If we get the break higher, and reach the $68 target I would count that as wave A of Cycle-5. A larger pullback, wave-B should then materialize. A break back below $37.50 is a first sign of worse things to come and reduces the immediate bullish potential.

XOP monthly