XLE, XLF, XLK, XLU, XLV, XLY updates 06/19

XLE: With the slightly higher high last month I prefer to view intermediate-c of major-c of primary-B underway to the blue target zone. Note the resistance zone as well and the $92 target may therefore be too optimistic. We’ll have to wait and see, but we should always expect c-waves to be 1.000 to 1.618x the prior a-wave, so we can’t exclude a price target that high just yet.

XLE

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XLF: I’ve upgraded the wave count to a major-3 top and major-4 underway as the decline is simple too long for a minor-4th wave. I still expect a major-5 to materialize and target around the blue (primary) 276.40% level (~33.25), which fits well with the possible bull-flag pattern that is developing. That should then conclude this Bull off the 2009 lows and we can expect another big correction to $12-15 imho.

XLF

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XLK: This sector can extend to around $78 for a v=i relationship, but there are already 5 waves up off the intermediate-iv low tagging around the 0.764x extension of intermediate-i. We would of course need to see a break below that low ($63) to confirm, but forewarned is forearmed as Primary IV will likely erase all of the 3 years of gains… Yes, technology may not do so well. The alternate is that the whole recent advance is only minor-1 and minor-2 is now underway, but than can only get confirmed with a drop to around $68 and then followed by new ATHs. Until then, I’d be cautious with this sector.

XLK

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XLU: This one remains tricky, and maybe therefore it’s best to stay out of it, as I still can’t be sure if this is a nested i,ii,1,2 set up down (which would result in the shown path), or if it bottomed at yellow 2 and is now starting a new uptrend. We would need to see a move over b/ii ($50) to confirm the latter. Until then: when in doubt (it is better to) stay out

XLU daily

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XLV: Continues to count best as minor-3 and -4 of intermediate-v of major-3 in and minor-5 should ideally target $95ish. A break below $75 is bearish (it’s the lower end of the strong S/R region; box) and targets 65ish.

XLV

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XLY: This one needs at least one more wave (minor-5) up to complete it’s largest cycle. Ideal target is $116-$118. So far, and based on the Fib-extensions, it counts best as having completed minor-3 and minor-4 to ~$107ish is underway. But this minor-3 can still extend to around $115 first before minor-4 takes hold and takes price down to $109ish. Regardless, there’s more upside from current levels and all we can assume for now is standard Fib-extensions. In addition, it does imply upside reward vs downside risk in the long term is not favorable anymore. Start thinking about an exit strategy.

XLY