XLE, XLF updates 01/23

XLE: Price has now reached the next upper resistance zone (prior major-a wave high) and it therefore still counts best as being in (yellow) major-c of (blue) Primary-B. The latter has an ideal target of $89ish, but that’s simple based on the ideal Fib-retraces B-waves tend to accomplish and thus not set in stone: anticipate, monitor, adjust if necessary. If price is able to break above resistance, and I must say upward momentum in price on the daily chart (not shown) is still very strong then I expect it to reach the Primary-B target I’ve had for a very long time (see my August 28, 2017 update where I show it for the first time). Now, symmetry breakout projects as high as $95, so lets say we’re aiming for $90-$95. Bottom-line, price keeps moving along the lines as set forth almost half a year ago.  I therefore see no reason to change my projections and forecast. Investors should still be long and can raise stops to levels they are either comfortable with regarding losing money or that allow them to lock in profits.



XLF: One of the largest market drivers and per Elliot Wave it’s counting very well as an impulse up, with a few questions here and there. First, let’s start at the beginning. We’ve nice 5 waves up off the price low made in 2002 (blue Primary IV) to the price high made in 2007 (Cycle 1/A). Note the subdividing and extending (yellow) major-5 wave, as that’s important to where price is now. Also note the C1/A and C2/B labeling as we can’t be certain yet if this will be a 5-wave Cylce-degree impulse or a 3-wave advance. For example, commodities and currencies move 9 out of 10 times in ABC’s (keep this in mind when dealing with crypto-currencies as well… I see many 5-wave projections and forecasts out there, but those are NOT guarantees).  Cont’d below.


From the 2009 price low we can count clean 5 up for blue Primary II, an irregular (flat) Primary II, then a Primary III that tagged the 1.382x extension as per textbook and a (failed) zigzag Primary IV that equaled the length of Primary II and tagged the 76.4% retrace. Up to here this is all amazingly textbook stuff. Doesn’t get more ideal and standard. Now remember the subdividing and extending 5th wave I mentioned earlier. That’s exactly what’s happening now as well. In fact, price is now in minor-3 of intermediate-iii of major-3 of Primary V. Minor-3 looks close to complete, but may need a few more weeks. It also means that price will ultimately continue (much) higher and high-30s to low-40s can be expected.