So far XLE has done almost exactly as planned. The yellow target zone from way back has not been moved, and neither the yellow b in that zone (see “projected b! not shabby! :-)” remark since I expected a 50% retrace to $87, instead we got a 38.2% retrace to $83. And that was months before it happened! Not shabby indeed. Moving on and not slapping ourselves too much on the back, we can start project the major c target. First target is the blue, primary, 23.6% extension at $64, followed by the major c=a extension at $54. However, for now a bounce, intermediate b appears to be coming our way (continued below)
Namely, looking at the weekly chart we see an EXTREMELY OVERSOLD RSI5 and price finding support at the S1 level. A retrace back to any of the long term SMA (100, 150 or 200w SMA) seems to be in order. This targets around $77-$83. After that intermediate c should bring price down to the S2 level ($54) which coincides with the aforementioned c=a level, at that point we’ll then likely get a nice + div on the weekly TIs as well. Makes sense!? IMHO it does.