XLE update 8/5/2015: major c underway, likely targeting $54; currently only a b-wave bounce!?

So far XLE has done almost exactly as planned. The yellow target zone from way back has not been moved, and neither the yellow b in that zone (see “projected b! not shabby! :-)” remark since I expected a 50% retrace to $87, instead we got a 38.2% retrace to $83. And that was months before it happened! Not shabby indeed. Moving on and not slapping ourselves too much on the back, we can start project the major c target. First target is the blue, primary, 23.6% extension at $64, followed by the major c=a extension at $54. However, for now a bounce, intermediate b appears to be coming our way (continued below)

xle update 852015

Namely, looking at the weekly chart we see an EXTREMELY OVERSOLD RSI5 and price finding support at the S1 level. A retrace back to any of the long term SMA (100, 150 or 200w SMA) seems to be in order. This targets around $77-$83. After that intermediate c should bring price down to the S2 level ($54) which coincides with the aforementioned c=a level, at that point we’ll then likely get a nice + div on the weekly TIs as well. Makes sense!? IMHO it does.

xle2

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