XHB, XLI updates 08/21

XHB: From last we can see price is holding the critical $39 level (prior b-wave high and intermediate-iii high) well, as long as it does, price has a good shot at moving to around $45.50-45.75 for major-5 of Primary-V. A quick stab lower and reversal can of course not be excluded, and we now do need to see price move over $42 to be more certain major-5 is indeed underway, but for now the preferred count remains, well, preferred.

XHB monthly

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XLI: Last update suggested a triangle intermediate-iv wave was forming, but instead it looks more like a bull-flag and it should target $87.50 for Primary-III (white lines), which remains the same price target as in my prior update. The breakout has already happened, and thus tells us intermediate-v is underway. Once III completes, I expect primary-IV to  drop to the $57 area (lower than where I’ve the IV label placed on the chart), as that’s now clearly long term support and primary -waves are the long-term degree type of waves. For those who are long XHI, it is thus NOT advisable to stay long when IV gets going but sell into strength, which is always the best strategy and what all pros do! Don’t even think for 1 second “oh we still have primary-V to go to new highs so I’ll just sit through this“, because my work, analyses and insights -just like that of any other analyst and forecaster- is always wrong till proven right. And once positions have large draw-downs is exactly when we start to panic and sell, you bet it’s right at the low by then…

XLI