Oil: WTIC, UCO, USO

Last Updated July 12, 2019

For WTIC the preferred Elliott Wave count remains that the recent rally is a b-wave and price will go below the 2018 lows to complete Primary-II as a zig-zag. The alternate is that wave-II is already in and the recent high was major-1 and major-2 is underway.

UCO looks to be doing something different IF the final 5th wave down is underway. BUT the December 2018 low may have been it and now (major) wave-1 and -2 of Primary-I are complete. This would fit with WITC. For this count to fit, price will have to dip, and then rally above the 2019 high ($26). That’s the most likely cue of wave-3 of I being underway. A drop below $15.00 will mean that wave-2 (II on WITC) is still underway, but that would actually shift the view back to the final 5th down being underway. So these are the price levels to watch for UCO:

Now to confuse matters more, sorry about that 😉 , BUT options are options and we need to always consider them -albeit this is IMHO a low probability option- we see a much more complex b-wave (red, green, black alt: a, b, c). See the daily USO chart below. This will come into play IF price drops to around $11.25 to close that pesky gap and then rallies above recent price highs. This alternate option is eliminated with price going below the late-May low at $10.50 (like for UCO). So one can if so desired use these price levels as entries and stops as the red, green, black alt: a, b, c also tracks the regular 1, 2 of Primary II count. So know your stops and entries here :=) .