VNQ – Vanguard Real Estate ETF

Updated May 24, 2019

As long as price stays above $70 this ETF looks big-picture-wise to be impulsing higher (blue Primary I, II, III, IV, V) and not making a corrective up up move (A,B,C).

My preferred POV is that (yellow) major-1 of Primary-V has completed and major-2 is underway to support at around low 80s ($81+/-1), before major-3 takes hold and rallies price to the low-100s. Then a major-4 and -5 should finish all of Primary-V and complete another very large wave. It is unknown at what degree that larger wave is, but we should thus at least expect a retrace down to the high-40s / low-50s. Worst case scenario is price will drop to the 2009 levels. This difference simple depends on what larger wave degree the anticipated Primary Wave-V top will be BUT, I have 0 indication for either long-term scenario yet as that is still really far out, so lets focus on the current price action. Yes, Primary IV could still be underway and the only way it will get confirmed is by price moving below the December low. For now I find that scenario less likely because the advance off that low to the recent high mid-April high, not shown here in detail, counts best as an impulse wave up.