Let’s start off with stating a limitation. Per Elliot Wave we were expecting a minor-3 and 4 to be followed by minor-5. Price topped right at the 200% extension of minute-iii to signal minor-3 is complete. Bingo! See UCO chart. But, then price never found support where it should (blue 4 in UCO chart, which is around the 38.2% retrace of minor-3) and continued to fall. However, on the USO chart we see that the recent low has not overlapped with the minor-1 high and can therefore still be a minor-4 low. It did overlap slightly on the UCO chart, but since UCO is derived from USO we’ll accept that small margin of error for now.
There’s now positive divergence on the daily RSI5 (green arrow) and the MACD is starting to point back up, and so is my A.I. buy/sell indicator. If you sold the recent high, one could go long again with a target of around $15.50, and a stop at $12.75. If oil does rally again, this will be very good for energy stocks and XLE of course. Keep an eye on those.