UCO, USO updates 02/21

UCO: In January I forecasted UCO would reach around $29 (see here) and when it got to $28.50 it reversed hard. It peaked right where it had to. Thus so far it is still following the preferred script of a possible primary IV top in, after a two years’ long abc corrective pattern. If correct, this means that Primary V to new lows is underway. The USO update below shows the price action in more detail.

UCO weekly

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USO: Clearly we have so far a picture perfect c=a relationship at the, little over $13.20, top for a nice potential primary IV wave high. Of the June 2017 low there are so far only 3 waves up (red a, b), with the c-wave consisting of five green waves up. The recent decline could be a 4th wave, with a final 5th wave to come to (marginal) new highs above $13.20, as c-waves (in this case black major-c) can be 5-waves as well. For now price is at $11.80 support and if it falls below $11.20-11.00, than $10.00-9.60 is next.

USO daily

IMHO trading oil on the long side is now more risky than 2-3 months ago. Long positions should have been exited and or stopped out on trailing stops. There’s no real edge right now.