UCO, GDX update 12/20

UCO: Hit our (green) c=1.618x a target to the T last week suggesting intermediate a topped. Now intermediate b should be underway, but a trade above $12 targets $14. Price did break above the upper red descending trendline and if we do a simple symmetry analyses it should the target $16 (recent low + low to high: $6->$14=$8, $8+$8=$16).

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As the weekly chart shows, UCO has been range bound for months and the black arrows show the symmetry breakout above $12 targeted $14 earlier this year. There’s also still the chart gap at $16 from late november 2015, which fits with our price target based on the daily chart.

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GDX: Broke through our long term $19.80 price target for major b. Although there’s positive divergence on the TIs the bulls last stand is the 76.4% retrace at $16.84. Price is still in the red downtrend channel and as long as it is in that the trend is down and going long is useless. Currently that means price needs to get over $21 before it’s a buy.

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