TSM – Taiwan Semi-conductor Mfg

Updated May 23, 2019

First time analyzing this ticker, so will focus on the big picture first. Thre are IMHO clear three Primary waves up off the 2003 low. Assuming this will become an impulse (five waves), price is now in Primary-IV which appears to most likely become an irregular flat targeting the 38.2% retrace of III. In this most likely scenario, price is now in (yellow) major-c (white line). From the P-IV low, wave-V should rally to new ATHs to complete Cycle-3 and a multi-year Cycle-4 will happen before Cycle-5 runs into mid-century to complete a super cycle. But that is so far out by then we could all be dead…

The alternate is that P-IV already bottomed late-December and wave-1 of V topped recently and wave-2 of V is underway. As long as price stays above $35.30, as that is heavy support, that is still possible. But, a break below $36.25 (the 78.60% retrace of wave-1) is already a serious warning this alternate scenario can be discarded.

So watch those price levels! The daily chart shows no sign of a turn or even a bounce yet, so catching a knife here is simply not advisable.