Last updated June 6, 2019
In last month’s update the Bearish count became preferred and I was originally look for first a bounce and then lower to $160s, because it appeared a diagonal pattern was forming. Well, instead of honoring the pattern, price collapsed lower when it lost $240 support. This shows once again that all we can do is: anticipate (based on price patterns, Elliott wave, technical indicators, etc), monitor and adjust. To that extend, price has now reached the minimum downside target for blue Primary A and could now be in wave-B back to prior resistance (~$280) before wave-C commences and takes price down to $40ish. A nice 7-8 year round-trip. This is exemplified with the blue path
Alternatively, wave-A is not yet done and all we have so far is wave-iv of c of A to be followed by a final stab lower to the 1.618x extension at $150ish before wave-B really starts (red path). This would set up nice positive divergence on the weekly technical indicators, which are often to be expected before price can stage a rally like a larger multi-month B-wave. Hence, why this is my preferred POV.
Regardless, for now both counts are looking higher. The preferred path (red) to only around $220-$240 and the blue path to $260-280. The advance will in either way be overlapping and messy (three waves) since it is a counter trend move