TLH, TLT

Last updated June 25, 2019

In this update I used the daily charts instead of the monthly charts to get more detail about the wave count and price targets, which should greatly help you in your trading decisions.

Both TLT and TLH appear to be completing (green) wave-3 of (red) iii/c as they are approaching their (green) 1.618x Fib-extensions. IF wave iii/c is to become 5 waves up, expect price to retrace to MAX the 100% extension for (green) wave-4 and then a final rally for (green) wave-5 to complete iii/c at the respective 200% fib-extension. This extension coincide well with the red 1.618x Fib-extension, which is -just like for green wave-3, the normal extension for a 3rd or C-wave. Since we don’t know before hand if this will become three or five waves up we must label it as such.

Please note the double negative divergences on the RSI5, MACD and MFI14. All suggest indeed wave-3 is nearing completion. Note that a drop below the 100% extension for the ideal wave-4 is not immediately bearish but should put you on alert. of course if price at any time from current levels or marginally higher drops below the green wave-1 high, it means the uptrend off the November 2018 low has most likely ended.

But for now I am looking for a standard impulse up to complete red iii/c with a smaller 4th wave soon to commence.