TLH, TLT, VNM updates 08/08

One of my members asked for the following updates, with VNM a new ETF (Market Vectors Vietnam ETF) as he heard from other EWers and market forecasters that TLT/TLH were setting up for a 3rd wave down… well not so fast…

TLH: Monthly Chart shown. The reason why I don’t see a 3rd wave down developing is because TLH (and TLT) move in abc’s, with in this case only (blue) primary C subdividing into 5 waves. Not much has changed since my last update in May (see here), where I forecasted  price to have likely bottomed for (yellow) major-a and be underway for the white target zone of (yellow) major-b. So far so good, that was correct.

Price is still in the larger uptrend channel, so not until price breaks below it and holds below it, do we have to look up bigger picture from that POV. Thus the b-wave target zone can still be reached “more fully” so to say.


Support is at $131 and once that breaks I’ll be look for a c-wave down to $112ish based on a symmetry breakdown (red boxes).  Thus not until $131 breaks down, price can still reach $144 first…


TLT: Monthly Chart shown. Similar to TLH, it did reach the lower end of the target zone I’d forecasted in May already 🙂 BINGO! Now it’s up to the market to decide if it still wants to reach the $134-$136 region or if it prefers to now drop below the (yellow) major-a? low. Support is at $115 and that needs to break to usher in more downside. Please note that like TLH, TLT is still above the yellow long-term uptrend line.  Price needs to break below it to signal the uptrend is over. I’ve no c-wave targets yet for TLT, but symmetry would predict $84 (144-114=30, 114-30=84). That’s around the (blue) primary-B low and.



VNM: Monthly chart shown. This ETF has been in a decline every since it got introduced in 2009, but did it bottom? Still unclear as the pattern of lower lows and lower highs has not changed. Yes the recent lows are all at about the same level, white horizontal line, and each a subsequent ~10c higher, but there’s not been a higher high since the (blue) Primary-B low. Although it could count as potentially complete (yellow) major-c, we do need to see price go above (red) intermediate-b: $15.72 to be followed by >17.98 (major-b high) to signal a new uptrend. Until then, it can still move lower to set up (more) positive divergence on the monthly MACD, which did turn to buy.