VXX, SVXY, UVXY, XIV update 07/20

A few of my members asked for updates on VIX-related ETFs, well here they are :-). Note volatility-related tickers are IMHO best viewed on a log-scale. This is in part based on their build-in decay.

VXX: Counts well as ideally a Primary-C down as the first wave from the “TOP” to “I/A” counts best as an (black) abc. That would mean (red) intermediate-iii of (black) major-5 is now underway. The alternate counts is shown with “?”. Given the rapid decay of price, starting at $31,000 and now at $11, it’s hard to give price targets for the last 4th and 5th wave bottoms. Regardless, this looks close to important bottoms, watch for reversals.



SVXY: Log-scale monthly chart. Counts best as Primary C/III underway. We don’t know yet if it will make 3 or 5 primary waves up, hence both impulse (I,I,III,etc) and non-impulse (A,B,C) have to be shown. For now, SVXY is most likely still only (red) intermediate-iii of major-3 of Primary III/C. Given how overbought the monthly RSI5 -top- and MFI14 -bottom- are, this “iii of 3 of III” notion is preferred and matches well as 3rd of 3rd waves have peak momentum. It does mean intermediate-iv (down) will soon be underway, which fits with where the overall stock-market currently is.



UVXY: Started at >$200,232 and is now worth a measly $30… Just goes to show how important stop-losses and trailing stops are. This ticker has build in decay… and is pretty much uncountable for EW. But technical analysis can be of help. Log-based symmetry targets $26.72. Seems like a good reversal point for increasing volatilty as the general market starts to top in the coming weeks/months. The ending diagonal triangle that appears to be forming would then suggest a move back to low $2000s, but it’s for now way too early to ascertain that. So watch for a strong reversal off the $26/27 level back over the upper red trend-line/arrow to signal a trend change is in play.



XIV: Similar count to SVXY. Also on log-chart. Intermediate-iii of major-3 of Primary III/C (III preferred) should commence soon.