Stocks Update 9/14/2015: AAPL, AMBA, NFLX

AAPL: Today I wanted to show what I believe is an easier way of counting; using a weekly line chart (those are based on weekly closing prices only). Line charts reduce the noise by not displaying the intra-weekly price highs and lows. Those spikes are indeed often only noise. The chart below shows a nice clean advance off the (yello) major 4 low made in 2013. We see that (Red) intermediate i was a simple 1-straight up wave: kick off wave. Intermediate ii did an expanded flat and then (green) minor 1 -and (white) minute i for that matter too- clearly and picture perfect subdivided into 5 waves, etc etc. See it’s much easier to count the waves this way. We can also see that on a closing basis wave iv almost retraced 38.2% of all of iii. On an intra-day basis it spiked down to the lower purple line. Noise. Also, we have a nice c=2.618x a relationship for the minor waves making up intermediate iv. Note that iii is now based on the highest closing price, not the spike high (noise!). Ideally intermediate v should now or soon be underway.

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AMBA: Considering that price has retraced over 50% of all of the ATL to the ATH, which would be over 62% the entire move from (yellow) major 2 to the ATH (now labelled as Primary I), it is hard to reconcile it as major 4. As such I’ve re-assessed the charts and found that price topped for Primary I and is now in primary II. So far we have a nice major a down and major b up, with major c underway. Assuming c=a, from (yellow) major b, then it should target the low $40s. This then falls well within the Primary II target zone (50-76.4% retrace of all of Primary I). Although not necessary, for now an intermediate b-bounce to prior resistance at $75ish would be ideal. Note that the major c=0.618x a relationship targets $63.25; and with a price low of $65.55 made on Friday, this was as close as it gets.

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NFLX: Price is now in Major 4, as the decline off the recent ATH is not in proportion to the recent (red) intermediate ii wave, and since there’s a perfect elliot wave channel in place for the intermediate waves making up the Major 3 wave. With that determined, we can use a c=a relationship for intermediate c and a of major 4, as well as for minor c and a (of intermediate c of major 4), and determine that both wave-degrees target around the same price level: $76.50 vs $77.15. In addition, the 61.8% retrace is also at $77.15. As if that is not enough, we have a trendline connecting the (blue) primary III high, intermediate iii of major 1, and major 1 high as well as an ascending (lower) white line parallel to an upper trendline that connects with intermediate b of major 2, and intermediate i of major 3. These two lines converge on October 8-10 right at the aforementioned price levels. Add to these facts that this price level was prior support (NFLX gapped up on earnings that day) and that October 9/10 is the 2nd strongest Bradley turn date and we have 6 lines of evidence pointing towards a nice possible price low of ~$77 around October 8-10.

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