stock update 11/11/2015: SBUX, SCTY, SWKS


SBUX: we’ve been staring at these charts for a while now and something just didn’t feel right with the count. Hence we’ve re-assessed the count and found that SBUX is now in major 5 of Primary III. Let’s start with the big picture count (monthly candlesticks). Don’t worry too much about the last clutter at the top, we’ll zoom in on that in the other charts. What is important here are purple Cycle wave 1, 2 and Primary wave I, II of Cycle wave 3. This tells us SBUX is in Cycle wave 3: the strongest wave. Obviously 😉 We can see that Primary I consisted of 5 (yellow) major waves. So far so good. Moving on to the next chart.SBUX 2Here we show the weekly chart. What is important are the blue Fib-extensions and knowing the fact that 3rd of 3rd waves often hit the 138.2% extension of wave 1 (measured from 2) and that the 3rd wave hits the 161.8% extension. In this case we see that major 3 of Primary III hit the 138.2% extension to the T. Major 4 then dropped to the 76.4% extension (also very typical) and price is now in major 5 of Primary III targeting the 161.8% extension at around $66. Perfect or what!? Primary IV should then drop to around the 100% extension (just like major 4 dropped 61.8%, so will Primary IV). On to the 3rd chart. See below

SBUX 1 Here we have the 2-day candlesticks and we can perfectly count the intermediate, minor and minute waves up. It also clearly shows how well major 3 and 4 tagged their respective Fib extensions and that now Major 5 is underway in the form of an ending diagonal (its very overlapping). Once the ED ends it will return to it’s beginning: major 4 low. That’s also exactly the 38/2% retrace (white Fib) of all of Primary III: very common for a 4th wave. Once primary IV is complete at around $43 Primary V should ideally carry price to the 200% extension on a V=I relationship: $77.  SBUX 3

SCTY: Two words sum it up “ugly chart”. Using the “IPO’s are often retraced 50-62% of either the open/offering or the top rule-of-thumb (see FB for example), and knowing SCTY was offered at $8, then we should look for a $4 target. YUP, that’s 96% BELOW it’s peak value (top): who said buy-n-hold works!?!? Now do the waves and Fib’s support this notion? Absolutely yes. The current count has price in minor a of intermediate c of major c (or Primary C, but wave degree is for now less important). Minor a will likely target the 100% extension of major a at around $21. Minor b will then retrace around 50%: back to $35 (intermediate a low). This is important long term S/R as well. From there a minor c=a relationship targets around mid-$4s. Note that this is also exactly the major c=1.382x major a (from b; yellow Fib) and the intermediate c=1.764x intermediate a (from b, red Fib). BINGO!?

sctySWKS: We still count as SWKS being in Primary IV with an ideal target in the mid-$70s. Currently price is going back and forth inside the target zone and major b could very well be major 1.

swks daily

If we zoom out to the weekly candles we can continue to clearly count Primary I and II, major 1,2,3,4 and 5 of primary III. The only question we have is if major 5 was snug in somewhere and that thus Cycle 1 topped. However, we do want to present an alternative count, see next chart.swks weekly

The alternative is that all of Primary V (cycle 1) peaked. This is based on Fib-extensions: Primary III hit the 161.8% and Primary V the 176.4%; both very typical for Fib-extension targets for 3rd and 5th waves. Although Primary IV was very short in time, it did retrace sufficiently. Hence, please be aware that SYSS may have topped long time and could be working on a trip down to $30s instead of new ATHs.