stock update 10/28/2015: BABA, GPRO, JCP


Each of these 3 stocks have been very difficult to track, and trade, but things are starting to clear (ps: nobody ever said it was easy to 😉 ) as such continued and frequent updates are warranted to allow for new buy zone and target sell zone identification.

BABA: Has so far rallied $30 (53%) since it low made late augst and popped another 4-5% yesterday due to surprisingly better than expected earnings (still nothing stellar though…). Regardless, we can count 5 waves up off that low, and price is now in a 3rd wave up targeting either and only $85-$86 for a c=a relationship (and thus we’ve experienced a larger corrective wave) or a $90-$96 target, which can still be a c wave or a 3rd wave. As such and at that point profits should be taken. However, given how price has moved up over the 5 trading days, it appears we’re dealing more with a 3r wave than a c-wave. Not shown here, but price found support over the past 2 days at the 200d SMA and cleared all daily R-levels. The weekly chart has the 50w SMA at $86 and the pivot at $97. Hence, both fall perfectly in line with our price targets.


GPRO: This is another crazy stock in the sense that it now has had actually 6 out of 7 stellar earnings, but it get’s sold off every time. Maybe the press told you different, but here are the facts:

  • Earnings (Q3): $36.63 Mln. vs. $17.96 Mln. last year.
  • Earnings Growth (Y-o-Y): 104.0%
  • EPS (Q3): $0.25 vs. $0.12 last year.
  • EPS Growth (Y-o-Y): 108.3%
  • Analysts Estimate: $0.29
  • Revenue (Q3): $400.34 Mln vs. $279.97 Mln last year.
  • Revenue Change (Y-o-Y): 43.0%

Now ask yourself, if you didn’t know this was GPRO and down 15% on this, would you buy it? I would, but unfortunately price is the final arbiter and price is down, and that’s what we have to content us with. BUT, we’re now in the last wave of a big C-wave down. I re-assessed the count and found that counting it as 5 waves down works much better than abc’s. Price is now in intermediate v of major c. Ideal target: the 3.618x extension at $19.95, this is also exactly where v=i

gpro2In addition, we can see on the daily chart that the S2 level is at $19.57. What we also can observe is that the RSI5 and MACD were at their lowest first two week of september, which coincides with our (white) minute iii and (green) minor 3 of intermediate iii (See above chart) The 3rd of a 3rd wave is always the strongest and that’s expressed in the most negative or positive TIs. Since then heavy + div has developed, however, for now without much avail.


JCP: This puppy has been tough to nail as well. The sell-off on Monday sure felt like an overdone c-wave and price found once again support in the low $9, high $8 region. We now have a perfect flat in place for minor 2: (white) minute a,b, and c wave. Price should now trade over the minute b high and minor 1 high: $10 level. this is critical for JCP to close above. Once it does, the next target is $ 11.70, followed by $13.90 as those have several different wave-level Fibonacci extensions overlap (minor, intermediate, major waves)