SMH – VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF

Last Updated March 7, 2019

Monthly chart tells us Primary-III has topped and wave-IV is now underway or could already have bottomed as it reached the ideal 4th wave target zone of a 23.6-38.2% retrace. Question is if that was all of wave-IV or if it is becoming much larger and the recent rally was only wave-a of b. Lets look at the daily chart for more clues.

The daily chart shows a clear leading diagonal. This means -see annotation in chart- that this was either wave-1 of Primary-V or wave-a of a larger b-wave within Primary-IV. In either case, price should work its way down to the ideal target zone shown below and then move higher again, above last months high. In the case of a larger b-wave, the Primary-IV would will likely become an irregular flat, which is not uncommon for a 4th wave.