SBUX, V updates 06/27

SBUX: warrants another update as it’s not behaving as anticipated. Why? There’s clearly only 3 waves up off it’s late-January low to the late-May high and this is thus counted best as a c-wave. Hence, the black 3/c labelling is my preferred count. What does this mean? It’s forming and EDT for primary V: a,b,c,d,e, with price now in major-d. The parallel black trendlines show where S/R is. The lower trendline is now around the 61.8% retrace, $57.75, which could suggest the “alt: ii” labeling, but the lack of symmetrical 5 waves up place the “alt: i” in serious jeopardy.

Thus for now I treat this as an EDT, with wave-e soon underway to new ATHs but for now all TIs are pointing down wanting to see lower prices. Once price turns and moves back above $61 (50d SMA and prior high) then it’s a buy again. For now: no buy signals. Says enough.

sbux daily


V:  Price is now most likely now in intermediate iv of major-3. I expect iv to reach $91 to $88, with an ideal of $90ish where c=1.618x a. Note the negative divergence on the MFI14 between the May high and June high (money was moving net out of the stock) and how the MACD is failing to make a buy crossover. Once the MFI14 drops below 20 and/or setups up positive divergence, it’s a buy and we can expect new highs for intermediate v of major-3; ideally around $100 assuming intermediate iv @ ~$90 and v=i=$10.