QIHU: We continue to count 5 major waves up to the early 2014 Primary I high. Question now is if we had 3 or 5 waves down to the Primary II or major a low. We prefer the 3 waves down as the 3rd wave (from b/2 to a/3) in that case doesn’t look like 5 waves at all, but like 3 waves, with the (green) minor a,b in between. And since the “II/a” low it appears an impulse is developing, which is stalling at major S/R. However, once this S/R is taken out, we should see 5 waves up, completing major 1. The retrace for major 2 is then a serious buying opportunity
SBUX: Our preferred count is that Primary III peaked early november and that price is now in Primary IV. Why? Because, besides the count, III almost hit the 1.618x extension of I, from II, perfectly. That’s an added line of evidence. We expect Primary IV to find support between $55 and $49. That’s 10-20% below current prices. IF we assume the lower price target then a simple V=I relationship will bring price to $76 for Primary V and reap over 50% in rewards 🙂 For now, price is in a descending trend channel, unable to break out, as long as price remains inside, the trend is down. If it breaks out, well label the recent ~$58 low as major a. Please note the rising wedge for major 5, and wedges are often retraced to their origin.