PSX, VLO updates 10/03

PSX: Starting with the monthly chart, we have so far 4 (black) major waves up, and since the $52.50 low made in early 2015 the advance has been rather overlapping an sloppy. My best interpretation of the price action over the past almost 3 years is an ending diagonal 5th wave, with a c-wave now underway targeting the upper trendline at around $97-$98, with a possible overthrow like (red) intermediate-a.

psx monthly

The daily chart below shows the more recent price action, with price now in an extended 5th wave: micro-3 of minute-v of minor-c. Micro-4 should ideally drop back to ~$92 and the micro-5 can finish the job to $96; which fits with the aformentioned target based on the monthly chart.

psx daily


VLO: counts best as wrapping up (yellow) major-1 of Primary III. Alternative is that it’s Primary C of a larger irregular cycle wave 2. But I find that less likely. Once major-1 tops at ideally around $83, the 61.8% extension of Primary I and then I expect price to drop back to around $60 for major 2 which has been prior support/resistance and the also the 61.8% retrace of all of major-1. A drop below the (blue) primary II/B will put the alternative count back on the table. Again, I find that much less likely.