NKE, TWTR, XOM updates 06/08

NKE: Depending a bit on how one would count this stock is now either in (blue) Primary V of (purple) Cycle 1 or Primary V of Cycle 3. I personally prefer the latter given the enormous rise since the 2009: a true 3rd of a 3rd wave (PIII of C3 in this case).


Although the Primary IV low hasn’t been confirmed yet (that will be by a trade over $60 IMHO) it is certainly possible major 1 and 2 are in for Primary V.  A trade above the yellow major 1 high ($59) will put credence to this count. A break below the IV low of $49 means IV will grind lower to possible $46. But for  now we prefer the bull count until proven otherwise.



TWTR: My preferred count remains -for a very long time now- that TWTR will seek a lower low as the current advance since its 2016 low was rather overlapping and sloppy. It doesn’t fit either with a price pattern of  a (yet) profitable company. My ideal price target remains the $13-$9 zone, with a $11 sweet spot as that’s the 86.4% retrace and where blue Primary C=A.

twtr 2

In more detail we can see the waves unfold on the 2-day scale. One more drop to $11ish would indeed be ideal to finish this last wave down and set up serious positive divergences on the longer term TIs.

twtr 1


XOM: Nice one in the sense that it counts well as having completed 5 primary waves up for all of Cycle 1. Primary III topped nicely within the ideal 3rd wave 1.382-1.618x target zone and primary V almost hit the ideal 1.764x extension. Classic. Price should now be in Primary C down, but can still tag on another leg up for all of Primary B. For now, I prefer the “more down” POV. But, correction are always hard to predict (and trade) so please be cautious. Ideal Cycle 2 low is the 50-61.8% retrace as Primary A hit the 38.2% retrace. That’ at around the Primary IV low: $54-$42. Once primary C is fully confirmed we can narrow its target down.