NASDAQ big picture count

Two possibilities IMHO. Either Cycle-3 topped and Cycle-4 will drop to around 5500-5300, or Cycle-3 of Super Cycle-3 has topped and Cycle-4 will “only” drop to around $6500. In the former case I expect Cycle-4 to be a flat since Cycle-2 was a zig-zag. In the latter case I expect Cycle-4 to be a zig-zag since Cylce-2 was a flat.

The Bullish alternative is of course a further subdividing 5th wave to $9400, but for now I find that less likely given the negative divergence on the monthly technicals as well as weekly (latter not shown).

Note, this big picture stuff is always most prone to errors: in the long run we’re all dead… And this count is not the same as for the SPX. Reason is because the bear markets of 2000-2003, and 2008-2009 are not at all of the same magnitude between NAS and SPX. In addition, NAS didn’t make a new ATH in 2007, SPX did… Thus these indices are in different counts bigger picture wise.

COMPQ monthly TI

COMPQ monthly TI2