MU, PCLN, Z updates 11/1

MU: Lets start with the big picture. The monthly chart below shows that price reached the first ideal target of $45 for a c=a relationship (green arrow) to complete a possible (blue) Primary A wave up. I say possible as the monthly technical indicators (TIs) are still long and strong, wanting to see higher prices. But, that was also the case at the (black) major-a wave in 2014, and thus these overbought readings without any negative divergence can be deceiving.  Cont’d below.

MU monthly

Looking at the daily chart we can see that MU is about to complete 5 waves up off it’s mid-August low. This would then suggest a (black) major-5 top, which would be all of Primary-A. Namely, A-waves often are 5-waves up. Note that much less money is flowing into the stock at current levels (MFI14) than in September. Since liquidity drives everything, this is a warning sign for MU. In addition, the MACD is barely giving a buy signal, after a typical “4th wave low” setup. Hence, all ingredients are in place for a top. Now, price does need to drop below the mid-August low to confirm Primary-A is in and Primary-B to ideally $20-$25 is underway, but for now, the risk/reward for longs is simple getting too large IMHO at current levels.

MU daily

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PCLN: Also here, big picture first. It’s been a while since I update this ticker, but which has been tracking well (see here and here), but not much has changed in my perspective as price reached the major-4 target zone box. But is major-4 done yet? Probably not. Con’t below.

PCLN Weekly

Why not? Because major-2 was a multi-month affair and of course major-3 lasted a year. Thus, it seems as major-4 is still developing. A more detailed look shows that price counts best as having advance in 3-waves up (green a, b) to (Red) intermediate-b recently.  A break below the (green) minor-b low at $1800 will confirm my preferred POV. The alternate is that off the mid-August low the advance was a set of nested 1st and 2nd waves, but for now I find that less likely. The standard c=a relationship targets $1675-$1650, but the 38.2% retrace for all of major-3 is at $1725. Since earnings are on 11/06/2017 after market close, it will be interesting to watch the reaction: over $1950 and major-5 is underway to new ATHs. Below $1800 and major-4 is still developing to $1725-$1650 🙂

PCLN Weekly2

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Z: is still on track for either (red) intermediate-v of major-a or all of major-a in a 3-wave fashion (black a, b). Either way, the ideal target to the down side is still $34-$32. That hasn’t changed since the last update made mid-September (see here). In fact, Z has followed the forecasted path so far to the T, and I therefore expect this to continue until proven otherwise (which is a break back above $43.

z daily