KOSPI – South Korea Seoul Composite

Updated July 10, 2019

The advance off the 1998 low until the 2018 high has been choppy and overlapping. Zooming in on the three most prominent periods: 1998->2007, 2007->2009, 2009->2018 we can see that the first period was rather three waves than five waves as the first rally (black major-a) was not an impulse, nor the rally from the 2001 low into the 2007 high. The rally from the 2003 low on the other hand was a nice sub-dividing five waves and fits the c-wave POV.

The 2007-2009 Bear market was a classic a,b,c wave and a classic 62% retrace of all of the prior wave-A. Perfect

The subsequent rally into early 2018 was almost exactly the length of wave-A in both price AND time. Nice symmetry. Note the trick leading diagonals/

So what we are left with now on the monthly time frame is a market in which price is below its 20m and 50m SMAs, with the former declining. To at least know this downtrend has changed price will need to break out and close above the red downtrend line. Failure to do so and a close below $2000 can quickly target $1750 which is where the 200m SMA will be soon.

Very big picture (multi-decade scale), price is of course clearly in a long term uptrend (green channel), but I am not sure if anybody holds positions for that long (and is IMHO dumb enough to sit through 62% corrections…)

So overall this market doesn’t look like its in the best of shapes and it will have to proof itself by for starters moving back over $2175.