INTC, PYPL, STZ updates 08/22

INTC: From an Elliot Wave perspective this stocks looks and counts best as having completed 5 waves up off its February 2016 low. Price is below its 200d SMA for the first time since September 2017 and the other moving averages (20d and 50d) are racing to drop below it. This is often not a good sign as it means the short- to long-term trends are changing from up to down. Although price will have to drop below the major-4 low made in February this year to confirm Primary-V, for now the ball is in the Bear’s camp, and the chart doesn’t look good. The alternative is of course a subdividing major-5 with now an intermediate-ii bottom forming. But, major-3 was already extended, subdivided, and long in time. Hence, there’s no real reason anymore for wave-5 to do that as often only one of the three impulse waves subdivides.

INTC daily YTD


PYPL: This stock has potential as it could be setting up for a wave-3 of iii of 5. The two possible Elliot wave counts are shown and both argue in favor of more upside. The Bearish alternative is that the late-July top was all of Major-5, but that’s still two against 1. And price will have to drop below $81 first to confirm the bearish thesis. That level can thus be used as as stop loss if deciding to go long. What matters now is a price break above the descending black trendline as then a nice triangle has formed. The dotted uptrend line remains support and can also be used to define a stop-loss level. Thus as long as price remains above its 20d, 50d and 200d SMA the trend on all time frames remains up.

pypl daily


STZ: Massive monster run. Up almost 540 fold (!) since it’s 38c low. But, nothing goes up for ever, and my elliot wave count tells us that either intermediate-iii of major-3 of primary III has peaked, or all of major-3. Both look for a retrace to around $170-145, with likely the upper end of this target zone as most realistic. After this retrace we should see another leg higher to complete a much larger top.

STZ monthly.png