Updated May 23, 2019
First time analyzing this ticker, so will focus on bigger trends first. What we have clearly is a diagonal pattern off the 2001 low. Now diagonals are always the hardest to track, trade, and analyse as they don’r really follow any hard rules in Elliott wave terms. So let’s focus on what we know instead:
- There were five waves up to the wave-1/a high.
- There were five (overlapping) waves up off the 2009 low
Thus either the diagonal completed as a B-wave of a very large Cycle-2 wave (blue path forward), or we will see one more decline (yellow major wave-4), and one more advance to complete Primary I, possible Cycle-1 (then the 2000 high was a Super Cycle). So all the ingredients are in place for a complete diagonal and intermediate- to longer term I am looking down to either around $8.40 for wave-4 or to as low as low-$1s for Cycle-2. Watch that lower diagonal trendline going forward: a sustained close below it will be a serious warning wave-5 to around $12+ will NOT happen.