Last updated March 7, 2019
From last update: “Counts incredible nice, clean and crisp for a Primary III top. Note the very extended (red) intermediate-v of (black) major-3 of (blue) primary III wave. I wanted to point it out as wave-iii hit the 1.618x extension to the T and wave-iv the 100% extension as well. Normally, wave-v then only goes to the 200% extension for a typical v=i relationship. But that’s “normal” and the market often is not normal. BUT, such an extension is of course IMPOSSIBLE to foresee. All that said question is if Primary IV already bottomed or if it is still on going. The chart shows the parameter to watch to know if V is on the way or if IV is still developing. Until then (breakdown or breakout) it may be best to watch and wait which way it goes.”
Nothing has changed since, as price has neither broken down, nor broken up. BUT, the whole advance since 2016 looks obviously (crazy) overlapping and has barely even the looks of a (leading) diagonal. Hence I have a very hard time labeling this as the start of wave-IV. Instead I prefer to label the 2018 high as wave-b of IV and wave-c of IV is now underway, with (black) wave-a and -b of -c of -IV now complete. To proof my point, price will have to move below $100 for starters (prior support). For now all technical indicators are pointing down, price is below its 200d SMA; and thus we should expect lower prices going forward.