HZNP update 8/15/2015: a first count suggest Primary IV underway targeting $27ish

One of our members asked me to analyze a new ticker: HZNP, which I always gladly do. In this case it was a delight to count. I will include this ticker now in the daily update list as it has good upside potential. The first chart shows the weekly candles since HZNP made it’s ATL in 2013. Since then price has clearly advanced in a 3 wave pattern up. As such we count this as primary I,II, III, with the alternative of it being an ABC. However, the price advance looks IMHO too impulsive and I expect Primary V to kick in once IV is completed. Note that primary II took about 4-5 months, and was arguable an ZIGZAG as the b-wave retraced exactly 76.4%. But, one can make the case for a flat though the b-wave retrace should have been higher in that case IMHO. Hence, based on alternation between 2nd and 4th waves, primary IV should be most likely a flat.

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HZNP 1

Given that 4th waves of the same degree often retrace 23.6-38.2% of all of the prior 3rd wave of the same degree. HZNP should find support in the $32-$27 area. The latter is exactly where major 4 bottomed. Price has now entered this territory. However, although not shown here, none of the daily TIs chart are on buy, instead the daily chart looks weak and bleak and wants to see (marginal) lower prices first. Support is at the $29 level. We can then, IMHO, expect a major a bottomed followed by major b retesting the ATH at high $30s since we expect Primary IV to be a flat.

A 3rd alternative is that this is only major 4, since both the primary and major waves produced monthly red candles. However, the major 2 candle was only marginally red, whereas the primary II candle was as long as the current august candle, giving the III,IV count a 75/25 probability vs the major 3,4 count.Ultimately I expect Primary IV to find support at the $27ish level, and then Primary V should ideally target around $45 based on a V=I relationship. HZNP 2

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