Updated June 13, 2019
Lets start with the first half off the chart, as it will help explain where GSK currently is. I can count nice impulses higher in the 1999 high, which makes it a Cycle-3 high. Alternatively, this ticker -as is always possible- moves in very large ABCs and that was already Super Cycle A, and SC-B is now underway instead of Cycle-4. BUT since it impulses nicely higher and corrects in three-waves lower, the SC-A, B count is the underdog. Knowing that I see GSK now in Cycle-4. Cont’d below.
Yes, Cycle-4 has been on going since 1999! Like AIG; who said buy and hold is the right strategy at all? That’s 20 years of nothing. Again, be very careful in which stocks you pick… I still prefer Cycle-4 to be underway and to complete it’s last C-wave around mid-20s. From there we can expect a big Cycle-5 to new ATHs (low 80s IMHO).
Not shown here, BUT C-4 could already have bottomed in 2009 and wave-III of C-5 is soon to commence. Problem I have with this option is that the advance off the 2009 low into the 2014 high (labeled as wave-A, B; respectively) doesn’t count well as an impulse. It can be a leading diagonal 1st wave, but those are simple less reliable. So, where does that leave us? Preferably lower, before higher, and a break below the late-2017 low will signal that is the case. A break above $46 from current levels (without going lower first) will however shift odds to a more immediate run to the low-$80s. Thus for now, bit of a no-mans land. But this stock has been doing little over the last 20years so what else can one expect…