GOOGL, NFLX update July 4

GOOGL: Another stock that actually has topped and is merely doing retrace while putting in lower lows and lower highs. The bear flag target was almost reached (so far fell $10 short) and suggests that likely major c is in, alternatively minor a of intermediate c. But there were 5 waves down from (red) intermediate b at $752, suggesting a c-wave completed. Resistance remains at the 20d and 50d SMA at $715-$722 followed by the 200d SMA at $732. The trend line crosses with 20<50<200 is bearish. Trading bounces for longs can be tricky as they can end prematurely. Set tight stops in other words when going long.

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NFLX: We continue to carry 2 different counts on this ticker: Primary IV vs Major 4. We prefer the former. Price could have finished either at the recent low. As we don’t see the prior advance off the February low to April high as 5 up: the internals are corrective (c=1.5x a). NFLX bulls now need to push price above the descending red trendline to confirm a break of the downtrend. If they can’t then a descending triangle formed with the low line at $85. A break below that level will then target $60… But for now, all TIs are pointing up and are on buy.

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Below is the preferred count  with primary IV having bottomed at the blue trend line; which has held as support ever since the October 2012 low and is thus very important. Th weekly TIs are starting to point back up, with positive divergences. Note as this will likely be Primary V we shouldn’t necessarily expect a clean 1,2,3,4,5 count, but an Ending Diagonal Triangle is very likely as well; with the black “b/1?” high as wave a of V and the recent low as wave b of V. Time will tell, but just so you are aware as 5th waves often are triangles.

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