Gold, GDX, GLD updates 11/27

GOLD: First a general symmetry pattern overview. As you can see, gold follows nice symmetry breakdown and breakout patterns. Doesn’t work all the time, but nothing does in the financial markets, but it works enough to be of a good guide. Thus a break below $1205 targets $1165 once again.

GOLD daily

Looking at the big picture the ideal POV is for one more leg lower to the 200month SMA to complete Cycle-B, from where Cycle-C should start. Price could go as low as high-800s, but I find that less likely for now, based on the detailed Elliott Wave counts for GDX and GLD (see below). Positive divergences are starting to build on the MACD and the FSTO is also giving a buy cross. Thus downside could be necessary to set up a launch pad higher.

GOLD monthly

GDX: Would really look and count best with one last micro-5 wave down to complete major-b. This would target $16.40-$16.30.

GDX daily

Also on the weekly chart this “one more micro-5 wave down” would look really good as it would set up positive divergence across many technical indicators. Note that the 5=1 target coincides nicely with the 78.6% retrace of the major-a rally in the first half of 2016.

GDX weekly


GLD: Looks also ready to roll over per its daily technical indicators and remains in the blue down trend channel. Ideal target remains $110-109, but it may not be reached given the current price structure. Nonetheless, as long as price is in this blue down trend channel we need to keep looking down.