GLD, UCO update 10/4

GLD: Looks like it could still be working in intermediate-iv of major-c. We do need to see a break above $115 to confirm it is moving to $116. If so, then intermediate-v should drop price to ~$108 from where we will see a multi-decade rally. It is possible intermediate-iv already completed mid-September, which fits with the length of intermediate-ii (1 month), but it’s my secondary preferred count. The alternative is that major-c has already completed, we would need to see a move above $122 to confirm this. However, the recent price action off the mid-August low is rather overlapping so that’s why its my alternate. Bottom line, I prefer to see a real move to the 100% extension for a text-book 4th wave, and then a drop to ~108 to really tell me major-c is complete. There are a few other lower odds options that so far have not been confirmed.



UCO: should now be in minute-iv of minor-5 of major-c. It tagged the grey (minute-wave) 161.80% extension to the T and should now be ideally underway to the 100% extension for wave-iv and then a final rally to the 200% extension to complete v of 5 of v of c.

UCO daily

Bigger picture wise it is unclear if Primary-IV is still underway (as counted in the daily chart) or if Primary-I of a new Cycle-wave is already underway. I can make a case for both. Regardless, once this wave tops at around $41 for UCO, we should see a sizeable decline back to at least $20.

UCO weekly