GDX, XBI updates 09/22

GDX; what’s going here many of you have asked. Well so far it still counts best as a b-wave down. Price did drop below the uptrend channel (black up arrows), which is indeed a concern. But price find support at the solid black trend channel and that needs to hold. Price recovered above the 50d SMA, which is constructive, and it is coming off rather oversold levels. For now, that’s all we can say about it. Please note that IF my count is incorrect and price will want to seek lower lows below $21, we can expect a larger bounce, similar to the one in March-April. Please note that back then price was below the 200d SMA and the 50d SMA was below the 200d SMA, which was also poiting down. Now the charts look better, with the 200d>50d and price above both, while both are pointing up. Hence, the odds of good things to happen are better now than back then.

GDX

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XBI: Looks like it is close to completing major-3/c, or may already have completed it. There’s negative divergence on the daily RSI5 as well as double negative divergence on the daily MACD. In addition, money is now flowing less and less into this ETF, (MFI14 is pointing down) whereas it’s making new highs. That’s bearish. But please note that longer term price is still in an uptrend, as per the black uptrend channel. Overlap with 1/a from here on out, will mean we only had an abc up instead of a 1,2,3,4,5 (impulse).

XBI