GDX update 11/9/2015: almost there.

GDX: Appears this one needs one more wave down to fully complete, instead of an abc the final c-wave is most likely forming 5 waves down. First up the big picture overview, with the TOP in 2011. Since we can see a (yellow) major a-wave down, major b up, and price is now in a heavily subdividing major c-wave down. Clearly price is in the final stages of that c-wave, with intermediate a, b and minor a, b of intermediate c complete. In fact, price is now most likely in minute v of minor c. Note how price was once again rejected at the long term descending white trendline.

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If we zoom we can see that minor c (of intermediate c of major c) is forming 5 minute waves down. Minute i, ii, iii and iv have competed. Minute iv formed a complex expanded flat correction. If counted correctly, price is now in micro 3 of minute v. With minute iii tagging the 138.2% extension and iv back to he 76.4%, minute v can now target the 176.4% extension (v=i), which is exactly the major c=1.618x a extension at $10.80. After that we can fully expect to at least $38 (50% retrace of all of prior A wave). In the fully bullish case the coming low will be an ATL and GDX will run to new highs. Hence, the downside risk is~$3, while the upside potential is $35 from current levels. That’s a 1:12 risk/reward ratio. Note, this is a long term position one should take.

gdx updateps: please disregard the blue fib retrace levels as those are based on the notion that the low was struck in September, which in this update we believe -based on the waves- is not the case.