Commodities are the hardest to track and trade as almost all move in ABC’s from long to short time frames (don’t ask me why the underlying sentiment is not impulsive like it is for many tech stocks for example, it simple is and that’s what we have to content us with). GDX is no exception and it’s currently indeed behaving accordingly. This is not an excuse for me, but an explanation of the underlying driving forces of price.
So where does that leave us on GDX? Given the current chart setup, with price back below the 200d SMA and a failed rally yesterday it counts best as minute-c of minor-b underway to ideally the 62% retrace at $22.57. Continued below chart.
Price did break below the blue uptrend line and as said also below the 200d SMA. Support is now at the red down trend line, which is now just below the 62% retrace. The FSTO and RSI5 are oversold again and a bounce should be expected, but is not necessary. If the gold bugs can get things going then I’ll be looking for $24-$25, possible $26.
Note that a potential bearish setup can also be forming, but we’ll need to see a break below the red down trend line first to be more certain that is the case. If so, I then expect a further ~30% decline ($7ish) to $14ish before all is said and done and by then nobody wants to own gold(miners) anymore and it’s time for the real big rally.