GDX update 09/14

GDX: time to update the gold miners. I’ve zoomed in a bit on the daily chart to show the wave-count in more detail. Given that the decline off the ~$25.50 high to today’s low was much larger than the prior (orange) micro-1, and since price is so far moving within the green upside channel that connects (grey) minute-i, ii, iii and now possible iv, I’ve moved the labels up 1 degree and price is now either in the starting gates of minute-v of minor-a, or already in minor-c higher. Cont’d below.

GDX

Namely, commodities move mostly -due to the underlying investor sentiment- in 3s (a, b, c) but the a- and c-wave can in turn internally exist of either 3 waves or 5 waves. Hence, the recent top may have simple been all of minor-a. For now, let’s assume minor-a will be 5-waves and that minute-iv of minor-a bottomed. Then minor-a should target $26ish for a nice v=i relationship. This is a nice target right at the upper end of the long term S/R zone (blue lines); and since it pays not to be greedy in the market then that’s what we set our targets on first. We can always catch the next bus.