GDX, UCO update September 3

The market doesn’t always do what we think it will, and in this case GDX and UCO didn’t pan out exactly as recently anticipated. That’s why we work and live by the: anticipate, monitor, adjust mantra. NEVER set any forecast in stone.

GDX: Didn’t reach our ideal $35 target, but came close to our “lesser ideal $32 target” Price is now in major b. Since B-waves often retrace between 38.2-61.8% of the prior A-wave we find the 50% retrace level ideal as that’s right at the lower support zone and assuming intermediate b tops at around $29, intermediate c -with a c=a relationship- then targets $22ish. We will continue to monitor the price action to see if b and c materialize as anticipated.

GDX

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UCO: Similarly, we expected a 5-wave structure up for oil, but instead only got 3 (green waves), with c=1.618x a. Normaly that’s the ideal wave-iii extension and price kept finding support at the 38.2% retrace, but broke through and headed to the 76.4% retrace. Given that oil, like other commodities trades better in abc’s (with sometimes internal 5 waves) we set the a-wave at the $11ish high and a possible b-wave low at Thursday’s low.

UCO