GDX, GLD updates 12/11

GDX: The recent 2+ months still look IMHO best as corrective as its a set of overlapping waves. That’s often a,b,c waves. Thus IMHO the current high, possible even marginally higher but capped off by the declining 200d SMA is micro-4, with micro-5 down still to come.

Daily GDX chart. Recent advance since September still looks best as corrective

On the weekly chart, one more move lower would look much better as well as it would set up all the “required” positive divergences to kick start wave-c up. Right now we don’t have it and although nothing is “necessary” a multi-year rally like that simple doesn’t start from very oversold levels.

GDX weekly; a lower low to the 78.6% retrace would set up very nice + div to kick start wave-c up to as high as the mid-40s

GLD: Gold -i.e. the GLD ETF- may contrary to GDX already have started its larger up move. Thus while GDX is still struggling, GLD may already be a bit further along. The detailed chart below shows the preferred Elliott Wave count and it suggest we could see marginally higher, but not necessarily -albeit it would look great as then the RSI5 would be negatively diverging tell us the next larger leg down is underway- for red wave-i and then red wave-ii should bring price back to support (blue horizontal arrow) before wave-iii kicks in. This wave-ii would then coincide with that last micro wave-5 down for the GDX and the wave-iii on GLD will then kick in the anticipated big rally in GDX. 

GLD could already have started it’s mult-year rally by forming a leading diagonal

Here’s a more detailed look of the recent “rally” in GLD, which indeed upon further inspection looks like a leading diagonal. The declining 200d SMA should for now and once again act as resistance.

Sure looks good for a leading diagonal pattern.