Last updated March 18, 2019.
Price finally broke out above its trading range, which allowed/forced me to assess the price action since the December low in much more detail. I must say, like most indices I track, the rally has been rather unorthodox with very non-standard, but not ruling-violating 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th waves. Nothing has gotten even close to what is considered normal. Therefore it is very hard to have an anchored, high confidence reference point, which reduces everything to “could be this, could be that”… I wish it was different. So what do we have? Finally price has moved back above its 200d SMA. For the first time since September last year. That by itself is bullish. It is uncertain if green 4 “4?” bottomed late-february or early-March (failed c-wave). But regardless, price should now be in wave-5 to complete grey “a/1” a retrace back to the grey box for b/2 would be considered normal/ideal (but remember this market has not been ideal at all…) before the next rally starts: wave-c of 3. Why c or 3? Because either the FTSE has topped longer term (see blue E or C label, with E being the longer-term top), or it will do one more wave higher (see blue D label at the December low), making this the E-wave. Time will tell which bigger picture count is ultimately operable, but for now I anticipate short-term higher, then lower, and intermediate-term higher again.