FSLR, GH, JD updates 10/30

FSLR: Rallied hard on earnings and should ideally now be in minor-3 of intermediate-i, or it is possible an A-wave consisting of 5-waves. However, so far the whole advance off price low made in April this year looks impulsive (5 waves up). The reason why I am still a bit hesitant on the whole advance is because of the monthly chart. Cont’d below.

FSLR daily

Namely, the advance off the low made in 2012 until the high made in 2014 is not an ideal impulse, but can be counted as such if the last advance off the late-2014 low is part of an irregular b-wave. However, what is obvious is that there is strong resistance at around $74.75 and given the current breakout due to last week’s reaction on earnings. I expect this to hold once again. A break over this level will certainly make things look much better for the bulls.

fslr monthly

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JD: Peaked ideally for Primary I and major-a is now underway to the red target zone (c= 1.382x a or c=1.618x a), or is about to bottom close to its 200d SMA as that’s where c=a.

Please see here for an explanation of wave-labels and degrees.

The decline from the August high has shaved already 36% off it’s high and once again shows that buy-hold-and-hope is not an ideal strategy. If you’d bought the May breakout (on earnings) and are still holding, your gain is essentially 0 six months later… Moving back to the chart: the technical indicators are positively diverging (green arrows) and so a bounce/rally maybe in the making. Especially with price around the 200d SMA, which is most often than not very good initial support. This should then ideally be an b-wave bounce which will not make new ATHs but instead stall at around $44-$46. Cont’d below.

JD daily

The “only” hope for the Bulls is that the monthly chart doesn’t suggest a primary I wave, but instead only a major-3 wave high and the current decline is only part of a large and deep major-4 wave.  A trade back over $46 will confirm this count, and we should then expect new ATHs soon for major-5 of Primary-I. JD.com, Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 11/21/2017 so we’ll watch closely what it is going to do until then. If it starts to advance in 5 waves up, and then 3 waves down, one can buy before earnings as the reaction should then be positive. Don’t go full in, as earnings reaction are often 10-15% to either side…

JD monthly

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GIS: New ticker for intelligent investing. Looking at the month chart (and yearly chart, but not shown here) it counts best as being in (gree) minor-4 of (red) intermediate-iii etc. This means that if my assessment is correct, GIS will move higher in a sets of 4th and 5th waves until (pink) Cycle-1 is reached. The chart below shows how this could look like. Note that these are just an example and not actual time/price forecasts. A break below $36 from current levels will mean GIS has topped. Cont’d below.

GIS monthly

For anybody wanting to jump into this ticker; please note it is trading below its 200d SMA and the 50d SMA is below the 200d SMA… This is all bearish. It’s recommended to wait till price is back above the 200d SMA and that the 50d SMA is above the 200d SMA. That will mean the trend has reversed and is back up. Money is made in the trend not in tops and bottoms. Hence for now I can’t recommend buying it.