FIT, TWTR, UAA updates 06/05

FIT: Moved and closed above its 200d SMA yesterday and continued its move higher! Told ya that SMA is magic 😉 Before we jump into details with the daily chart, lets assess the bigger picture using the weekly chart. Price counts as having completed 5 waves down in to the April low, which would be Cycle-2. However, we do need to see price move above the December 2017 high of $7.30 to be much more certain. For now, the weekly chart does look good to strongly suggest -from an Elliot Wave perspective- a very important low has been struck.

fit weekly.png

When we assess the daily chart, we can count 5 (green, minor) waves up from the April low to April high to complete intermediate-i, then a quick sharp retrace for intermediate-ii and now a subdividing intermediate-iii is underway. Price is now most likely in minute-iii of minor-3 of intermediate-iii: the strongest move. Which is evidenced by how the Bollinger Bands are expanding and how overbought the RSI5 is. Depending on extensions I expect intermediate-iii to reach the 138.20-161.80% extension, which is right at the (purple) long term resistance zone. IF price doesn’t extend (can’t foretell that) then from there intermediate-iv will drop back to around the 100% extension : low-6s, before intermediate-v targets mid-7s.

fit daily

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TWTR: All eyes on this stock today as it will be included in the S&P500. Thus a big pop today well over the standard 138.2 to 161.8% Fib-extension targets typical for a 3rd wave. Thus price is extending; again impossible to foresee beforehand. This is why one either simple moves up stops and if these stops are not hit, you just let the position ride, or use a mechanical system that only gives buy and sell signals. Don’t sell just because a price target has been reached. At a minimum one needs to see a reversal, negative divergences, etc. There’s none here, so we continue to look higher. As we’re out of the realm/help of text-books here it’s now becoming a bit more guess work which Fib-extension this 3rd wave will pick. I’ve listed them all from 200% to 261.80% and we’ll simple have to see. If I were to pick I’d say the 223.6 to 238.20%, but that’s just me guessing really. So we’ll simple follow price and mark one Fib-extension off after the other. Then minor-4 and 5 will follow to complete major-3. See weekly chart below.

TWTR daily

With the break over the next horizontal resistance line (green), we can expect price to move to the next level at around $43 +/- 1. So far we have -as shown above in the daily chart- not even an inkling off minor-4 being underway, so

TWTR Weekly

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UAA: One of my favorites as it has likely struck a (very) long term bottom. No guarantees, ever, but so far so good. Let’s look at the monthly chart first. We can see price has broken out above the upper red trend-line in place since the late-2015 top and is making new 52-week highs. Both are of course nice Bullish developments. The monthly MACD has been on a buy since April and the RSI5 is nicely moving higher. Yes it is overbought, but that’s actually a sign of strength, because it is a Relative STRENGTH Indicator: the higher it goes the more strength the stock has. Hence, no reason to sell just because it’s overbought. Money is flowing back into the stock, so looks good to me!

UAA monthly

When we assess the daily chart, we can see price has already moved above the 100% extension for this 3rd of a 3rd wave (can still be an abc up, but IMHO that’s now less likely based on the developments on the monthly chart) and the next logical targets are the 138.2% to 161.80% Fib-extensions for this minor-3 wave. Simple break out symmetry (red arrows) point to the 161.80% extension, so let’s set our sights there and see what happens. There’s no negative divergence anywhere, all TIs are on a buy and so we can expect higher prices going forward.

UAA daily