FIT, SBUX, SNAP, TSLA updates 10/25

FIT: Can be counted, using Elliot Wave as having completed 5 waves up off the early December low. It is expected to report earnings 11/1 and although price is now reaching the ideal (and possible) red intermediate-ii target zone, it may be wise to wait until after earnings to see if this count will come to fruition? Then we should see an intermediate-iii getting started with price ideally gaping higher of the (red) intermediate-i high ($7.09). Reason I am hesitant is because there’s a little bit of internal (3rd wave) overlap of the smaller (grey) minute waves from an Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) perspective. Using O(bjective)EWT this is however not the case (and not an issue). Since trading is (IMHO) more about being on the right side of the trend than picking tops and bottoms, it may be wise to wait a week and see what happens on earnings day. Cont’d below plot.

fit daily

For now, the 200d SMA is holding as support, which is a positive. The RSI5 is max oversold and the A.I. is actually trying to turn back up and give a buy signal. Let’s see how that develops over the next few days (please contact me to ask!!).

The weekly chart below shows the big picture count on the weekly time-frame, since the company’s IPO, and we can observe that price is now above the 20w and 50w SMAs, which it needs to hold as well to allow for more upside. The EWT wave-count has the LOW as possible complete, though one more stab lower can not be excluded in the case that the recent $7.09 high was the (green) minor-4 wave of (red) intermediate-v instead. Hence, why patience into earnings is prudent.

fit weekly

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SBUX: Counts still best as being in the (red) intermediate-v (or c)  wave down to $50 ideally. (Red) intermediate-iv hit the (green) minor-c=a wave extension to the T and price has since retraced almost the entire advance. However, it does need to break below the September lows to entirely confirm that $50 is next. Regardless, price is below its 200d, 50d and 20d SMAs and that’s bearish. Simple.

SBUX daily

Big Picture wise, using the monthly chart, I still prefer SBUX to be in primary IV of Cylce-1. Please note that the ideal (red) intermediate-c = a, from b (mid-October high) targets $45, which is also the (black) major-c =  1.618x a extension. Thus the $50 target on the daily chart maybe too conservative. The $45 target also falls nicely in the ideal 23.6-38.2% retrace typical for a 4th wave (blue box).  Cont’d below.

sbux monthly

Thus, in summary: I continue (since early August; see here) to look for an ideal $50-$45 target zone, before SBUX should start to rally in (blue) Primary V to new ATHs.

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SNAP: The rally off the mid-August low now starts to look corrective as the current decline over the past 9 days has overlapped with the early October highs and the rally off the September 25 low till the high 2 weeks ago is best counted as 3-waves up and not 5. Thus the whole advance counts best as a (green) a-b-c up instead of a 1,2,i,ii (nested 1st and 2nd waves). A break below the mid-September low will confirm this abc-count and we can then expect price to drop to the next Fib-retrace level (76.4%) at $9.21. The recent high was then simple (red) intermediate-iv of (black) major-c, meaning that major-c will be 5 waves: i,ii,iii,iv,v.

SNAP daily

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TSLA: Not feeling the love over the past 2-3 months and that’s because it is in (red) intermediate-c of (black) major-4. In this case, major-4 is forming a flat correction. All corrections are in the form of an a-b-c, and during a flat correction waves a, b, and c are of equal length. There are variations to this theme (b>c, c>a, c<a, etc), but the a=b=c is the most common and standard flat. Technical chart analyses would call it “a consolidation period”.

What does all this mean? That price should ideally seek out $305ish for all of major-4. It is where (red) intermediate-c =a , measured from the (red) b-wave high of $390ish, and where (green) minor-c =a, measured from the (green) b-wave high of $365ish). Thus we have two wave degrees that point to the same level. That’s very good.

TSLA daily

If we then look at the weekly chart we see that (black) major-3 hit the typical 161.8% extension of major-1, measured from major-2 to the T. Followed by (red) intermediate-a down to the 100% Fib-extension, (red) intermediate-b back up to where wave-a started, and wave-c now underway to the same level ($308ish). After that we should see wave-5 take price to the ideal 1.764-2.00x extension: $402-$435. Since major-3 was 1.618x 1, and major-4 will bottom at the 1.0x extension, while wave-5 is often equal to the length of wave-1; the 2.000x extension is most likely. Nonetheless, it would be prudent to start to scale out once $400 is reached; that be a $100 gain per share anyway… Cont’d below.

TSLA weekly

For now, all Technical Indicators are pointing down on the weekly and daily charts, wanting to see lower prices. TSLA is to report earnings 11/1 after hours and it will be prudent to wait until after that to see how investors (and thus price) will react.