FIT, RACE, TWTR updates 09/07

FIT: Broke above it’s 200d SMA for the first time since September last year (yes, 1 year ago). Hence, a significant development. We already got an ideal buy signal early August (green solid up arrow), but no real confirmation of price as price traded up and down the 50d SMA. But now price is above all three (20d, 50d, 200d) thus signalling a short to long term trend change.  In addition, all these SMAs are starting to point back up. Thus the chart is improving. The move off the august 21 low to august 28 high can be counted as 5 waves up. (1 or a-wave). Assuming a new impulse (1) we should expect a first high at around $8, baring any wave extensions. If only 3 waves up (a), we can expect $7.60 to be reached (c=1.618x a)

fit daily

Moving on to the weekly chart, which is where I have the my EW count, we can see that it counts as complete, with 5-waves down for (black) primary-c. Price is now attacking the 50w SMA. A move above it would be a first as well and thus also significant and solidifying the notion that the trend for FIT has changed from down to up. While price has been flat over the past 6-7 months the weekly MACD slowly increased and all other TIs are also pointing up.

fit weekly


RACE: Skidded off the race track today down ~7%.  So let’s go over the monthly, weekly, and daily charts to see where price is. The monthly chart shows we clearly have 5 waves up off the February 2016 low, strongly suggesting Primary I peaked this week.  A break below $85 will confirm (then the advance off the (black) major-4 low can’t be counted as an intermediate-i of major-5 wave

race monthly

Moving on to the weekly chart, I can fine tune the count a bit more and also here I can count 5 major waves up, including the intermediate and minor waves of major-3. This chart thus confirms the monthly chart. Today is clearly the largest 1 day drop RACE ever experienced during the entire uptrend, signalling a trend change. The ideal primary II target zone is given and although there’s still way too little data to confirm any of these levels, we do see that each of the standard Fib-retraces coincides with good support. Thus the target zone is logical and reasonable.

race weekly

Lastly the daily chart, which I can also can easily count as 5 waves up. Thus all 3 charts on the 3 critical time frames confirm each other. Note the negative divergence on the RSI5, MACD and OBV: The TIs didn’t confirm major 5 at all.



TWTR: For those who’ve been a long time member; you know I’ve always had a $13-$9 target for the ultimate low. Today’s move back up over the 200d SMA hasn’t changed it. In fact, current price action supports the count I presented august 23 (see here).  Price should now be in minor-b of intermediate-c of  major-5 of  primary-C. Please note the color coding is 1-degree off compared to what I normally use. This will be updated on the weekly chart in the next update.

TWTR Weekly

The daily chart below has the correct labeling and shows the ideal target box for (green) minor-b: $17.71 to $19.73. Price is now back above the 200d SMA, attacking the 50d SMA. There’s a gap at $19.27, which may get filled. It falls within the ideal target zone for the b-wave bounce. Note that price has moved also back above the orange descending trend line and a simple symmetry breakout targets also well within the target zone.


TWTR daily

Once minor-b is completed, minor-c of intermediate-c should take price towards the ideal target zone of a 50-62% retrace of it’s IPO price. Since it looks like major-5 of Primary A is becoming an Ending Diagonal Triangle, we may still see a d-wave up and a final e-wave down. This will then complete all of Cycle 2.