FDX and GDX updates 04/12

FDX: Since FDX tracks Dr. Copper very closely (obviously since Freeport mines copper, see black line for Copper prices), I put it here together with GDX. Most likely major-4 has bottomed and major-5 is underway to ideally around $22.60 +/- $1. We can see a triangle is forming (red dotted lines) and the length of the move into the triangle, measured from its base targets around the 200.00% extension of major-1, measured from 2, which is the typical 5th wave target when the 3rd wave went to the 1.618x extension. This it did as price came within 50c of that extension early 2018. In addition, major-2 took 12 weeks (lower blue box) and major-4 has now taken almost as long. Thus all ingredients are in place for major-5. As long as $16.50 holds and we see a breakout above the red dotted downtrend line, should we see price move higher. One can long, if so inclined, FCX with a stop at below say just below $16.40.

fcx weekly

GDX: You may have seen my tweets over the past few days as its been making good progress. Detailed view show it broke and close above the 200d SMA yesterday, but failed to hold it today. However, it appears a triangle is forming, targeting mid- to high-23s. Only as long as the $22.40 level holds. If not, then the triangle is not valid anymore.

gdx 1

From an EWT perspective, we may have seen the intermediate-b/ii low and intermediate-c of major-c to new highs, i.e. above $25.25, to $30s, is underway. But a lot will need to happen to be more certain: move back and hold above the 200d SMA, move back and hold above the February high, price to stay in green uptrend channel. Thus, the Bulls have some work to do. But a close and hold above the 200d SMA is -at least for me- a buy signal.

GDX daily